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Dutch, Spain both eye history-making victorySoccer Betting Lines07/10/2010 - Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - History will be made at Soccer City on Sunday in the final of the FIFA World Cup as either the Netherlands or Spain will claim its first-ever World Cup title. One of the two sides will become the eighth nation to win a World Cup, and while the Dutch have appeared in the finals on two other occasions, in 1974 and 1978, this is uncharted territory for Spain. "We haven't achieved anything like this before but this team deserves everything that comes our way," said Spain striker David Villa. "It's not easy to get this far but we're hungry for more and we couldn't be happier at reaching the final. That's what we came here for and now we want to go out and win it." This will be the second big final for Spain in two years as it beat Germany, 1-0, to win the Euro 2008 title, and as midfielder Xabi Alonso said, "if you reach the final, you want to go on and win it." Spain has gotten to its first World Cup final with three successive 1-0 victories in the knockout stage, beating Portugal, Paraguay and Germany by the same scoreline. The Dutch, meanwhile, have found the net seven times in their three knockout stage wins, beating Slovakia and Brazil, 2-1, before a 3-2 triumph over Uruguay in the semifinals. "We're in the final - unbelievable," overjoyed Dutch manager Bert van Marwijk said following the semifinal win. "When I took this job two years ago, I said to the players, 'We're on a mission, and we just have to believe in ourselves.' We're only a small country but we're through to the final, that's just unbelievable. We last made the final 32 years ago, so what we've achieved is, and I'll say it again, unbelievable." Wesley Sneijder has also been unbelievable as he has led the team with five goals this tournament, while getting some strong support from both Arjen Robben and Dirk Kuyt on the wings. However, if the Dutch want to complete their mission, they had better be stronger in defense as they will face a high-powered Spanish attack. Despite scoring only seven goals in six games so far, Spain has created countless scoring chances and has controlled most of its games with a big edge in possession. Spain manager Vicente del Bosque will have one big decision to make up top, and that is whether to start the struggling Fernando Torres alongside Villa, or go with Pedro, who played well in his first start against Germany in the semifinals. The Netherlands has the kind of players in Robben and Sneijder who could be effective on the counter attack, but if Spain is firing on all cylinders on Sunday, it is hard to see it losing. The Spanish have given up just two goals all tournament, and midfielder Xavi believes that if they can duplicate their semifinal performance, that he likes their chances of bringing home the World Cup. "Holland are a great team, they've got really strong players, especially from the midfield to the attack and they're on a great run of form," Xavi said. "But we have to play our football - if we play like we did in the semifinal, we have a great chance."
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Sportsbooks to bet on footballRecently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it. He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games. "Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote. He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games. Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk. Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible. Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines. Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy. With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season. Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas). And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.) The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors. While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger. Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under. One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it. Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami. What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5. That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well. MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple. "The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money. "At the end of the day, we liked the home team." So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams. In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish. MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover. The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing. Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed. MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash. To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards. |
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