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War Pass - Can he carry his speed to glory?Horseracing Betting Lines03/04/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's a big difference between being undefeated in March and winning the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, but War Pass has an outstanding chance to join the likes of Seattle Slew, Smarty Jones and Barbaro as the lone unbeaten Derby winners since 1970. The two-year-old Eclipse Award winner opened his three-year-old campaign back on February 24 with a smashing victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The Nick Zito-trained colt finished the flat mile in 1:36 1/5 hitting the wire 7 -lengths in front of his four overmatched rivals. Much has been made about the clockings that day, as the final and fractional times of almost all the races, even the Fountain of Youth, have been revamped more times than imaginable. Given that, some have argued that War Pass ran a full second faster, which if true, would make the allowance win even more impressive. Perhaps the most imposing aspect of the victory was his ability to rate in the early going. This was the first race in his career that he was able to lead the field after a first quarter in over 23 seconds and a half over 46. His lack of competition had a lot to do with the fact not one horse challenged him early, but it's hard to argue with the ease of his gait and the calmness of the ride by Cornelio Velasquez. War Pass has yet to race past 1 1/16, but his first nine-panel affair will come on March 15 in the Tampa Bay Derby. The rest of those expected to challenge him would not put fear into those betting on the two-year-old champion, so in essence, it will be another "workout" against inferior competition. It's doubtful another horse will outrun him to the front in Tampa, unless Zito wants Velasquez to rate him in order to preserve some of his speed for longer distances, which the trainer has given zero indication will be the case. Even though it's early in the month of March, there are boatloads of questions regarding his stamina, which is the only thing holding him back from going off even money in the Kentucky Derby. Still, he is the lone three-year-old to have shown any glimpse of greatness, and it's that presence that has him sitting pretty, perched high atop the rest of his competition. NOT MUCH BEHIND HIM Suffice it to say, we won't know how War Pass will handle the 1 1/8 distance until his final two prep races, but for now he looks to be far and away the top contender in a year full of unpolished three-year-olds. Court Vision, this columnist's top choice, failed in his 2008 debut in the Fountain of Youth finishing third, while post-time favorite Monba was absolutely pitiful, coming home 12th and last. The winner, Cool Coal Man, a stablemate of War Pass, benefited from a perfect trip and will likely be an overbet favorite in the Florida Derby at the end of March. For those still left on Court Vision's bandwagon, don't throw in the towel just yet. His first race this year was merely a tune-up for bigger and better things. In the Fountain of Youth, he nestled himself in last place, 12 lengths off the pace at the half, and was even further back at the three-quarter pole, before rallying for third, beaten 6 -lengths. All in all, not a terrible way to begin the year, but a more hardened workout regimen must be adhered to in order to revamp some of his lackadaisical habits. One possible longshot to keep an eye on in the future is Halo Najib. The second-place finisher to Court Vision in last year's Iroquois made an impressive middle move only to flatten out in the final furlong to finish sixth in the FOY, and could be overlooked in his next start. It is very interesting to compare most of the experts' top 10s prior to President's Day weekend to their current rankings. Horses that were barely getting mentioned almost one month ago are now in most handicappers' top five. Cool Coal Man and Denis of Cork are two who immediately come to mind. It seems that all a horse has to do to move up the list is to record a victory in a prep race. If one doesn't think this is true, just take a look at where Colonel John, Cool Coal Man and Denis of Cork are, and you'll see what I'm talking about. Don't be shocked if at least two of these horses fail to win their next start. Another reason these horses are constantly moving up? A genuine lack of quality underneath. It's been a rarity this year for a horse to distinguish himself with a decent second- or third-place finish, the exception being El Gato Malo's placing in the Sham Stakes behind Colonel John this past weekend. And even he has a host of question marks having never run on a dirt track, as well as being poorly bred for the 10 panels on the first Saturday in May. And for the record, both Colonel John and El Gato Malo received Beyer numbers in the mid-80s for that race. THIS WEEK'S PREPS The Louisiana Derby highlights this Saturday's action, and it's shaping up as the most important race of the season. Pyro will try to duplicate his victory in the Risen Star when he squares off against eight others, including Majestic Warrior, Tale of Ekati and J Be K. Everyone is well aware by now of Pyro's dominating performance in early February, but this field is 10 times better than the one he faced in the Risen Star. However, his two most acclaimed rivals, Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati, will be making their 2008 debuts, a tough spot for any horse coming off a long layoff. The former impressed many with his fast closing finish in last year's Hopeful Stakes, while the latter took home the Futurity at Belmont last September. Still, they both have not raced since October, and War Pass and Pyro easily smashed them in the two most important two-year-old races: the Champagne and Breeders' Cup Juvenile. J Be K is an interesting horse and one to definitely keep an eye on. The lightly-raced colt is two-for-two with his last victory coming by five lengths in an allowance race over this course on February 15. He has yet to race in anything other than a sprint and will be giving a lot away in terms of experience, but there's not much speed in the race so don't be surprised if he steals it on the front end or at least holds second to Pyro. The other prep race this Saturday comes from New York, where Giant Moon and Visionaire do battle with eight others. Giant Moon is undefeated with four consecutive victories, but this will be his first race in two months. Visionaire was last seen finishing third to Pyro in the Risen Star and could knock off the "Giant" if he improves off that effort. Don't forget Visionaire got the best of Elysium Fields, the Fountain of Youth runner-up, in his maiden win in November of 2007. JEFF FRANK'S TOP 10 DERBY PROSPECTS Pool 2 wagering begins this Thursday so get your wallets ready. Here is this week's top 10 list followed by Pool 1 closing odds: 1) Court Vision, 15-1; 2) War Pass, 6-1; 3) Pyro, 5-1; 4) Colonel John, 19-1; 5) Tomcito, 3-1 (field); 6) Denis of Cork, 46-1; 7) El Gato Malo, 16-1; 8) Atoned, 3-1 (field); 9) Fierce Wind, 3-1 (field); 10-T) Giant Moon, 51-1, and Big Truck, 3-1 (field).
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Sportsbooks to bet on footballRecently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it. He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games. "Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote. He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games. Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk. Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible. Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines. Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy. With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season. Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas). And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.) The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors. While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger. Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under. One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it. Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami. What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5. That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well. MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple. "The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money. "At the end of the day, we liked the home team." So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams. In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish. MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover. The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing. Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed. MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash. To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards. Matt Kenseth And Kevin Harvick Favorites To Take NASCAR Nextel Cup Championship (September 15)—The NASCAR season has hit the homestretch with the opening event on this year’s Chase for the Cup taking place this weekend at the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. With 10 races remaining to determine the Cup Series champion, leading online sportsbook MySportsbook.com today announced odds on all 10 Chase qualifying drivers capturing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship. One of the largest sportsbook sites on the Internet, MySportsbook.com currently lists the top two drivers in the point standings as the early favorites to win the Nextel Cup. Entering the Chase for the Cup with a slim five-point lead in the point standings, 2003 NASCAR champ Matt Kenseth has been made a slight favorite to win his second Cup at 7/2 betting odds. 2001 Cup Rookie of the Year Kevin Harvick has betting odds listed at 5/2 and four-time NASCAR champion Jeff Gordon is listed at 6/1 to capture the Nextel Cup this year. Hoping to follow in the footsteps of his legendary father who won six NASCAR titles, Dale Earnhardt Jr. stands at 8/1 to breakthrough with his first Cup victory. Staying with the family theme, MySportsbook.com lists 2005 Rookie of the Year Kyle Busch at 14/1 to succeed big brother Kurt’s 2004 NASCAR title. While Kasey Kahne was the final driver to qualify for the Chase with a third place finish last week, the oddsmakers give him a fighting chance at 10/1 mainly due to several mile-and-a-half tracks remaining on the schedule. Despite going winless on the NASCAR circuit this season, Jeff Burton enters the Chase at 5/1 to capture the Cup title. Meanwhile, rookie Denny Hamlin is 4/1 to win the championship, while veteran driver Mark Martin enters the Chase for the Cup as a 15/1 long shot to win his first NASCAR title in his 24th and final season. MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com. To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts US credit cards needs. |
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